Sunday November 13th 2022

Today’s weather was not ideal. It never rained, but it seemed like it would start at any minute for most of the day. After a foggy start the day warmed up into the low eighties with plenty of humidity.

My tentative plans for the day were put aside because of the weather. I didn’t want to get into outside activities that would be interrupted by rain. Instead I watched some TV and read for a diversion. For exercise I got in a couple of walks around the RV resort. The Sandhill Cranes were particularly photogenic today. The Peacocks and Peahens were not being as cooperative.

The park is close to full now. There are only a small handful of empty sites. The people level is not at maximum yet. Many of the RVs and Mobile Homes are still empty. The occupants haven’t returned for the winter. The fifth wheel trailer on one side of me is such an RV. Its slide out rooms are still pulled in and there is no outside paraphernalia. I wonder if they will arrive before I leave after Thanksgiving.

On my other side, my neighbor is a family with two young kids. This park is advertised as a 55plus park, so I’m not sure what that’s all about. The kids aren’t a problem. You hardly know they are around. During the week they are at school and on the weekends they seem to keep busy. When they are inside their trailer I’m more aware of their presence. There is a lot of banging on the walls and the sounds of running coming from the trailer. I think the phrase “climbing the walls” applies more literally to their existence inside the trailer.

Saturday November 12th 2022

After a foggy start, it was another beautiful day in Central Florida. The wind was very light and the clouds were light and fluffy. The temperature peaked in the mid eighties.

In the afternoon I visited Disney Springs the shopping and entertainment area of Walt Disney World. For some reason I thought it wouldn’t be very busy on a Saturday afternoon. Perhaps because it is a holiday weekend, or more likely I just don’t understand shopping patterns, it was very busy. The Orange parking garage only had available spaces on the top floor when I arrived shortly after noon. The other garages and surface lots may have been similarly full, because the walkways and stores throughout the district were jammed with people.

I came to see the Christmas decorations and wander through a few shops. There were also a few performers on some of the stages that kept my attention for awhile. The primary decorations come in the form of Christmas trees scattered throughout the area. Each is styled differently according to a theme. Most of the trees represent Disney movies or characters. There is a map and stickers that you can follow and mark off each tree as you find them. I just wandered from one end to the other looking at the trees and other decorations.

The World of Disney store was filled with people shopping for Disney merchandise. Some of the stuff makes me wonder about the creativity of the market people. Do you suppose that dogs appreciate having a bed with Cinderella’s castle or Mickey Mouse’s head on it? Obviously their owners will buy almost anything Disney. At least the five year old girls with $200 dollar dresses and tiaras enjoy the look for a couple of minutes before playing in the muddy fountains. I’m just amazed at what people spend money on when on vacation.

Friday November 11th 2022

Tropical system Nicole is long gone from Florida. Today’s weather pattern is back to a familiar pattern. It was sunny and dry in the morning and the afternoon was filled with pop up rain storms. The temperature was a little above normal in the upper eighties. The weekend is forecast to be cooler.

Today was the first “normal” day this week. Early in the week I was worried about the weather. Then I was preparing for the weather followed by living through the weather. It was a very confusing morning getting back into a normal flow. Later in the day the weather conspired against me. Every time I was about to go out a storm would pop up darkening the sky and soaking the ground. I ended up staying at home all day.

One of the things I did while waiting out today’s pop up storms was review the impact of the latest hurricane on my winter reservations. Hurricane Ian, six weeks ago, put two of my two week stays at Florida State Parks in danger. My question was how much worse Nicole may have made the situation. As of now it doesn’t look like any additional issues have come up.

My biggest concern remains my stay at Myakka River State Park in December. The river was more than five feet above flood stage after Ian and didn’t go below flood stage for several weeks. The river gauge in the park showed a blip from Nicole today, but it remained below flood stage. The original statement on the park web page was “reservations canceled until at least November 20th and probably longer”. Now the statement is “reservations canceled until November 30th and possibly longer”. How much credence should I give to the fact that they only moved it out ten days and changed the “probably” to “possibly”? The other issue is for a reservation at the end of February, so lots of things can dry out by then. Finding an alternative location for December will be difficult. I will probably have to go to northern Florida. An alternative for February will be both difficult and expensive.

Thursday November 10th 2022

Last night mid evening the wind started to blow and rain began to fall. It wasn’t a very heavy rain and I was sheltered from the bulk of the wind. By midnight the rain was a little heavier, and the wind was howling between buildings and trees. Shortly before I turned the TV off and went to sleep hurricane Nicole was reported to have made landfall in Florida.

I woke up once during the night at about 4:30AM. The storm sounded a little more intense than before I went to bed. It still sounded less severe than other storms I have experienced in my RV home. The next time I woke up around 7:30AM, it wasn’t raining and the wind didn’t seem to be blowing as hard. It turns out that I was in the area of the center of circulation. I can’t really call it the eye. The hurricane had been downgraded to a tropical storm and the center of circulation was very wide. Most of the width of the Florida peninsular at my latitude was in the center of the circulation. The east coast was getting battered by the wind and the west coast was starting to get wind blown as well.

By 9AM the wind and the rain were back from a different direction. My RV home wasn’t blocked as well from the wind anymore. The strong gusty tropical storm force winds rocked my RV most of the morning. The rain wasn’t very heavy. Shortly afternoon it was possible to walk around outside. The rain had stopped and the heavy gusts were over. This evening the wind is almost calm and no rain is in the area.

The park suffered from a few small downed branches and a couple of pieces of loose vinyl siding which might have happened at another time. The retention ponds had a little higher water level and some of the culverts were at their maximum flow. The park staff was busy this afternoon returning the pool furniture to pool side.

Other areas of Florida weren’t as lucky. In particular, the east coastal areas and central Florida wetlands that were impacted six weeks ago by hurricane Ian were at risk again. The TV stations were concentrating coverage on several condominium buildings and homes in Daytona Beach Shores. Hurricane Ian damaged the beach and seawall in front of the properties. The combination of the high tides caused by the full moon and the broad area of strong wind induced wave action from Nicole compromised several buildings. Inland areas that flooded for the first time during Ian flooded again from Nicole. Overall six weeks wasn’t enough time to recover and develop mitigations after Ian.

Wednesday November 9th 2022

Most of the day was filled with light rain. Most of the time it was little more than drizzle. As the day progressed a little bit of wind joined the mix, but nothing like the wind speed in the forecast. Nicole is now a hurricane. It is true impact is forecast to start shortly after midnight and continue for the next twelve to eighteen hours. The path calls for it to come ashore between 120 to 150 miles south east of here, but the storm force winds extend several hundred miles from the center.

I spent today making preparations for the storm. Mainly that involved charging all of my portable devices in case the power goes out during the storm. After the storm I can run my generator if necessary. The other thing I did was reconfigure the inside of my RV home to support life with the slide outs retracted. I loose a lot of floor space when they are retracted. The sofa only has room for me in one narrow slot at the far end the rest is filled with stuff that usually occupies the floor space available when the slides are out. About 5PM this afternoon I retracted the slides into the travel position. The only reason I did that was to keep the slide toppers from flapping in the wind. They make a real racket in the wind. This evening before I go to bed I will also lower the satellite antenna.

During a lull in the rain this afternoon, I got in one of my daily walks around the RV park. For the most part people have picked up or tied down their outside stuff. A few of the park models have lowered their window awnings into storm shield mode. A few RVs had pulled in their slides and evacuated to places unknown. Surprisingly, that option never occurred to me. In my thoughts if I ran from the storm, the motorhome ran with me. It may be an intense few hours, but I don’t think the risk is very high. The county has not issued any evacuation orders or opened any shelters, so they seem to agree with my assessment. Looking around again just before dark, most of the park residents are still here to ride out the storm.

Tuesday November 8th 2022

The weather this morning continued the positive trend of the last few days, but around noon it started to decline. Brief periods of intense rain started to fall. As the afternoon progressed the frequency and duration increased. Overnight it is forecast to be dry, but the real rain associated with the tropical system will begin midday Wednesday.

I was surprised to find a lot of traffic in the RV park this morning. There was a steady stream of cars entering the park. There was also more than the usual amount of traffic passing my site. When I went to investigate I found signs directing people to the park’s club house for voting. One of the area polling stations is located in the club house. Overnight the road into the park was lined with political signs along with red voting this way signs. This is a first for me. I’ve never been in an RV park with a poll before.

Shortly after noon I ventured out to restock my food supply. Most of my needs were items that complement the main course, so they weren’t essential. I probably should have skipped the adventure. With a tropical storm approaching everyone and their brother was stocking up. The checkout lines were all five or more carts long. I managed to pick one with a slow or inexperienced cashier. A supervisor had to visit the checkout at least three times before I put my stuff on the conveyor belt. I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that more than half my time in the store was spent in the checkout line.

My grocery store fun wasn’t over at the checkout. When I stepped outside the first of today’s storms was about to begin. Only a few drops of rain were falling as I started to walk across the lot to my car. Before I got to my car it was a full blown wind driven downpour. I was soaked to the bone by the time I got into my car. The rain was over by the time I was on the main road heading home to see how much rain came in my open windows. I lucked out the wind direction prevented any serious intrusion.

Monday November 7th 2022

The weather has started to deteriorate slowly. There was more wind today and a few periods of cloud cover. During one cloudy period a brief heavy rain shower wet everything down. Still, it was an OK weather day. The high temperature was in the mid eighties.

The National Hurricane Center has given the storm system off the coast the name of Nicole. It is heading for the Florida Peninsular. The current forecast has it making landfall near Palm Beach late Wednesday as strong Tropical Storm or a weak Category 1 Hurricane. This area is expected to get winds from thirty to forty MPH with possible gusts in the sixties. Rain is the big concern. Between mid day Wednesday and mid day Friday four to eight inches of rain are possible.

I think I’m in a relatively good location. The storm will likely be a tropical storm when it passes by this area. Ian, at the end of September, was a category 2 in this area and the winds were not a major issue. My site is sheltered from the wind by bigger park model trailer homes and trees in the distance. There are no trees within easy striking distance of my RV home. With respect to flooding I’m near the top of a gentle (10 to 15 feet) hill. There are runoff holding ponds at the bottom of the hill on three sides that aren’t likely to overflow significantly. The only danger I am concerned with is a random tornado caused by the hurricane, but that would be plain bad luck.

Running from this storm doesn’t seem to be necessary or really an option. Evacuations are only anticipated on the barrier islands along the coast near the path of the storm. That is over 100 miles from here. There isn’t enough time to get far enough away. The storm is very wide and the track cone is even bigger. To get out of the path I’d have to go west to the Pensacola area or north above Atlanta. Both are two day trips.

Other than analyzing and re-evaluating the storm and my options over and over, I got a few chores done around my RV Home today. The clutter associated with a longer stay in one place is starting to accumulate.

Sunday November 6th 2022

A little more wind arrived today, but otherwise it was a repeat of the last few days. The temperature got into the upper eighties with a medium level of humidity. According to the forecast the weather is going down hill from here. A tropical system is developing in the Atlantic east of the Bahamas. The current worst case scenario has it becoming a tropical storm as it approaches the Florida Peninsular in the middle of the week. This area may get from four to eight inches of rain. As with all tropical systems the track of the storm is key to the intensity. It is time to watch the forecast closely.

The return to standard time had an impact on my day. First I wake up early according to the actual time, but on time by the clock in the bedroom. So instead of getting up, I roll over and go back to sleep. I actually got up later than my normal time by the actual time. Once up, the morning still seemed to go by slowly and the afternoon quicker. It was dark by 6PM. I wonder how many days it will take to get used to the new normal.

This RV resort had a little more life than I’ve come to expect today. More people seem to have arrived. The number of RVs and Mobile Homes that appear to be empty is getting smaller. There also seem to be more people out walking to supplement all of the people whizzing around in golf carts. The swimming pool even had a few people splashing around today. I think there has only been one other day that I saw people in the pool.

Checking license plates to see where the “snowbirds” come from is one of my diversions while walking around the park. The Canadian provinces of Quebec and Ontario are popular origins. It is nice to see Canadian plates again. They were nonexistent in the winter of 2020 and not abundant last year. The border has been open for about a year now. I was also surprised to find several license tags from my old home of New Hampshire. It isn’t odd to see one or two, but there are at least four here.

Saturday November 5th 2022

The great weather continued today. The temperature peaked in the upper eighties with a Florida reasonable level of humidity. The only improvement Mother Nature could have made was a little more breeze. It was pretty still all day.

Since I got in late last night my blog entry was rather hurried. It turned into a lot of pictures of Space Ship earth during the LED Beacons of Magic displays and the fireworks during the Harmonious show in the lagoon. I didn’t take time in the blog entry to explain that I really enjoyed my visit despite not riding a lot of attractions. I was able to walk around the World Showcase about two and a half times visiting the pavilions. There was fun entertainment at Canada, the UK, Japan, while I was roaming around. The big entertainment at the American Gardens Theater was an organized mob scene. People were seated filling the theater for the first Boyz II Men show an hour before showtime. At show time the walkway outside the theater was fifteen feet deep with standing people. It was an organized mob only because Disney cast members had placed tape lines on the pavement defining the standing zone. They were actively enforcing the taped lines. The boy band was not my era or my genre, but I was curious about the attraction. I walked by during two of the shows and was happy not to be in the crowd.

Various Disney news blogs have confirmed my impression that yesterday was a particularly popular day for people visiting Disney. Reservations at Magic Kingdom and Hollywood Studios were “sold out”. EPCOT probably picked up a lot of the overflow. It is also theorized that EPCOT has a bigger reservations quota since it has a much bigger area to fill.

Leaving EPCOT last night I waited more than half an hour after the fireworks ended before making my way to the parking lot. The park attractions actually close at the start of the Harmonious fireworks show. It was almost 10PM by the time I started to make my way out and the crowd was smaller. Once in my car I joined a line of cars that moved steadily at a slow pace. Unfortunately, I was parked in an unfamiliar area and made a wrong turn leaving the park. Fortunately, I knew were the roads I ended up on went. I came home via a longer, circuitous route through Kissimmee FL.

My night time driving skills are returning. Before last weeks trip to EPCOT, I hadn’t driven at night since April. My speed and distance estimations based on headlights needed to be refreshed. The insides of my windshield and side windows needed a good cleaning as well. Two or three nights of driving in traffic have restored my skills. It is a good thing since Standard Time returns tonight.

Friday November 4th 2022

The current weather trend continued today. The temperature was above normal with moderate humidity. There were some scattered showers in the area, but they missed me.

About mid afternoon I drove over to Disney World to spend and evening at EPCOT. My goal was to watch some of the entertainment. In particular I wanted to watch the night time fireworks show and possible watch the Boyz II Men performance. Traffic cooperated and it only took a little over half an hour to get to the parking lot. Then things got a little strange.

The sections of the parking lot they use the most was full. The attendants were directing cars into the rows that were filled in the morning to take the spaces made available by departing guests. They actually started to park people on the grass surrounding the parking lots after I got parked. I was in the preferred parking lot without paying the premium. I think they were trying not to use a major section of the parking lot that was setup for the RunDisney half marathon tomorrow morning. They typically use the area as a staging area for all of the runners. Whatever the cause, I haven’t seen the lot so full in a long time.

The park was very crowded. The RunDisney event may be the cause or possibly the Boyz II Men concert. The concert was certainly overflowing. I only managed to walk by during two of the sets. It was no great loss, I didn’t recognize any of the music they were performing. At least I managed to ride “Living with the Land” that I missed riding last week. The hanging squash gourds were impressive.