Monday November 7th 2022

The weather has started to deteriorate slowly. There was more wind today and a few periods of cloud cover. During one cloudy period a brief heavy rain shower wet everything down. Still, it was an OK weather day. The high temperature was in the mid eighties.

The National Hurricane Center has given the storm system off the coast the name of Nicole. It is heading for the Florida Peninsular. The current forecast has it making landfall near Palm Beach late Wednesday as strong Tropical Storm or a weak Category 1 Hurricane. This area is expected to get winds from thirty to forty MPH with possible gusts in the sixties. Rain is the big concern. Between mid day Wednesday and mid day Friday four to eight inches of rain are possible.

I think I’m in a relatively good location. The storm will likely be a tropical storm when it passes by this area. Ian, at the end of September, was a category 2 in this area and the winds were not a major issue. My site is sheltered from the wind by bigger park model trailer homes and trees in the distance. There are no trees within easy striking distance of my RV home. With respect to flooding I’m near the top of a gentle (10 to 15 feet) hill. There are runoff holding ponds at the bottom of the hill on three sides that aren’t likely to overflow significantly. The only danger I am concerned with is a random tornado caused by the hurricane, but that would be plain bad luck.

Running from this storm doesn’t seem to be necessary or really an option. Evacuations are only anticipated on the barrier islands along the coast near the path of the storm. That is over 100 miles from here. There isn’t enough time to get far enough away. The storm is very wide and the track cone is even bigger. To get out of the path I’d have to go west to the Pensacola area or north above Atlanta. Both are two day trips.

Other than analyzing and re-evaluating the storm and my options over and over, I got a few chores done around my RV Home today. The clutter associated with a longer stay in one place is starting to accumulate.