Fooled by the Weather Forecast

Sunday May 15th 2022

It was cloudy when I woke up this morning, but turned into a partly cloudy day during the afternoon. The temperature climbed into the low nineties. In the evening a thunderstorm moved into the area from the southwest. The bulk of the storm passed west to east a little south of my location. This area was just outside the severe thunderstorm warning box. Overall it was a nice day. Unfortunately, I got fooled by the weather forecast and changed my planned activities to another stay at home day.

It was partly cloudy in the afternoon.

When I woke to a cloudy day, I turned on the TV to catch the morning weather forecast. The forecast had a 75 percent chance of rain for the day. In my not quite awake state I didn’t take into account what the high number really meant. I thought I was in for a rainy day. The forecast area for the Orlando TV stations is very large. It goes from south of Melbourne in the southeast to west of Ocala in the northwest. The simplest interpretation of the 75 percent chance of rain is the worst. If you are in the forecast area you have a 75 percent chance of rain. The more complex interpretation is not as dire. That interpretation recognizes that the day is long and the area is big. Not every area will have rain at all times. Some areas won’t get rain at all.

The rainy forecast caused me to change my plans from a visit to Sea World to another stay at home TV watching day. They are currently between festivals so it would have been a regular day st the park. The last festival ended a week ago. I probably will not get back to any of the theme parks until fall. Tomorrow is my last full day in this area. I may go to Disney Springs one last time.

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